The developments in Syria hold significant importance for the Taliban, as they may view these changes as an opportunity to expand their influence regionally.
The Taliban-controlled Arg page reported a meeting of the group’s political commission to discuss the situation in Syria and deliberate on strengthening relations and interactions with Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham (HTS).
Why are developments in Syria important to the Taliban?
The fall of Bashar al-Assad’s regime and ongoing transformations in Syria can be significant for the Afghan Taliban for at least three key reasons:
1. Impact on Regional and International Relations
The Taliban have grown disillusioned with Pakistan as a strategic ally and are now seeking to replace it with new regional partners. They recognize the need for strong collaborators with shared interests to gain regional and global legitimacy. Strengthening Islamist groups in the region could, in turn, bolster the Taliban’s regional influence.
2. Influence on Extremist Networks
Syria hosts numerous jihadist and extremist groups, some of which, particularly Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham, share ideological or operational ties with the Taliban. The fall of Bashar al-Assad’s regime to these groups could directly shape the Taliban’s future relations with a post-Assad Syrian government.
3. Weakening Iran’s Role in the Region
The collapse of Assad’s regime has significantly undermined Iran’s influence in the region. The Taliban view this as an opportunity to enhance their own regional standing. They are cautiously evaluating how to leverage the diminished role of Iran to position themselves as a key regional player.
While developments in Syria may not have direct implications for Afghanistan, they hold ideological, political, and geopolitical significance for the Taliban. The group anticipates that the new government in Syria could become a potential ally and even formally recognize the Taliban as the legitimate rulers of Afghanistan.
However, given the unfolding situation in Syria and statements by the leadership of Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham, it seems unlikely that HTS would make any decisions regarding the Taliban without taking into account the global policies toward their governance in Afghanistan.
These dynamics highlight the Taliban’s broader aspirations for regional influence, using the Syrian developments as a potential leverage point in their geopolitical strategy.
